The math, in plain English

What the carrier is really taking

Six ideas decide whether a leased truck makes money. None of them are complicated — they’re just never explained to you. Pick your equipment and we’ll walk it with real numbers.

1

Gross is not income

The big number on the rate confirmation is gross — before the carrier deducts your lease, fuel, insurance and the rest. What you actually keep is what’s left. Here’s a normal week on a dry van, every line laid out:

2

Fixed vs. variable — the most important split

Fixed costs come out no matter how many miles you run — lease, insurance, escrow, permits. Variable costs scale with miles — fuel, tires, maintenance, tolls. This split is the whole game: variable costs shrink in a slow week, but the fixed nut doesn’t budge.

Fixed / week
doesn’t change with miles
Variable / mile
only when wheels turn
Gross / week (this example)
at the rate shown
A light week is dangerous precisely because your fixed costs stay the same while your revenue falls. That’s how a “slow week” becomes a losing week.
3

True net & true cost per mile

Three numbers tell you everything. Gross per mile is what it looks like. Operating cost per mile is what it costs to turn the wheel. Take-home per mile is what’s left — the only one that pays your mortgage.

Gross per mile
the rate-sheet number
Operating cost / mile
fixed + variable
Take-home / mile
what you actually keep

Note: take-home per mile here is business net, before your own income/SE tax — see step 6.

4

Break-even miles — how far before you make a dime

Every mile you run earns the rate minus your variable cost — that’s your contribution per mile. Pile up enough of it to cover the week’s fixed nut, and you’ve hit break-even. Everything past that is yours.

On a dry van, each mile contributes after variable cost — enough to cover the week’s fixed nut and break even at about miles.
5

The negative-week trap

Lease-purchase programs are built around the weeks you don’t see coming. Miles drop, the rate softens, but the lease payment and insurance come out anyway. A couple of those in a row, and the truck is bleeding you — usually before you’ve noticed. The decoder’s negative-week alarm says it out loud, in plain numbers, while you can still act.

Most lease-purchase drivers walk away with nothing. Not because they couldn’t drive — because nobody showed them the settlement turning red until it was too late.
6

Plan for success — and set aside for taxes

Knowing the past is half of it. The other half is working backward from a goal: how many miles, at what rate, to actually clear what I want? And because you’re self-employed, part of every dollar isn’t really yours until taxes are set aside.

True net (this week)
Set aside for tax (25%)
After-tax take-home

A planning cushion using a 25% rule of thumb (self-employment + income tax) — not a tax return. Set your own rate in the calculator.

Now run your own numbers